Author 
Message 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  12:33 am:  
By Lynne (Lynne) on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  12:10 am: 28 tickets is sufficient to beat the odds of 1 in 14 million to win the jackpot? yes, but those aren't the odds in question By Lynne (Lynne) on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  12:11 am: Does the number needed vary according to your personal age? yes, among other things So different people need different quantities? very much so 
Mosquito (Mosquito)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  4:33 pm:  
Do you need to buy the 28 tickets every week? Twice a week? Is there a relevant other use of the same sum? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  4:37 pm:  
By Mosquito (Mosquito) on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  04:33 pm: Do you need to buy the 28 tickets every week? no  the idea is that if I were ever to buy lottery tickets, I would need to buy 28 of them so that... Twice a week? Is there a relevant other use of the same sum? I am not quite sure what this means. The puzzle isn't about some other purpose to which I could put twenty eight quid. 
Mosquito (Mosquito)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  5:24 pm:  
Is the important thing the expected return on 28 tickets as compared to fewer? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  5:25 pm:  
By Mosquito (Mosquito) on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  05:24 pm: Is the important thing the expected return on 28 tickets as compared to fewer? to an extent  28 tickets are needed to increase the expected return to a certain level 
Mosquito (Mosquito)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  5:31 pm:  
So a higher level is needed when you are older? Because you have fewer years in which to earn money? Because you will retire sooner? Have less of a chance to save money for retirement? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  5:32 pm:  
By Mosquito (Mosquito) on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  05:31 pm: So a higher level is needed when you are older? yes Because you have fewer years in which to earn money? not to earn money, no Because you will retire sooner? no Have less of a chance to save money for retirement? no 
Jens Weber (Sundowner)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  5:44 pm:  
Would you have to buy 28 tickets at once? once in a time? repeatedly? If you buy 28 tickets at once, do they participate in the next drawing only? in the next 2 drawings? in a series of ... drawings? are these subscription tickets? (= they take part in any drawing from the moment you buy them, until you cancel the subscription) 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  5:46 pm:  
By Jens Weber (Sundowner) on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  05:44 pm: Would you have to buy 28 tickets at once? I could do this once in a time? or this, as long as when the draw was made, I had 28 tickets repeatedly? I would need 28 tickets every time the lottery was drawn, but there would be no compulsion for me to buy tickets for every draw If you buy 28 tickets at once, do they participate in the next drawing only? this one in the next 2 drawings? in a series of ... drawings? are these subscription tickets? (= they take part in any drawing from the moment you buy them, until you cancel the subscription) no  these are oneshot tickets for a single drawing of the lottery 
Alan (Alan)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  7:45 pm:  
with 28 tickets, one can perm the 49 numbers in such a way as to garantee to win the minimum prize? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  8:58 pm:  
By Alan (Alan) on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  07:45 pm: with 28 tickets, one can perm the 49 numbers in such a way as to garantee to win the minimum prize? if only this were true, but with 28 tickets, all one can do is have 28 of the 13,983,816 possible permutations 
Mosquito (Mosquito)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  10:37 pm:  
Are there any variables apart from age that affect the number of tickets needed? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  11:13 pm:  
By Mosquito (Mosquito) on Wednesday, December 21, 2005  10:37 pm: Are there any variables apart from age that affect the number of tickets needed? yes 
Lynne (Lynne)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:03 am:  
Does gender, occupation, place of residence affect the number? Is this based on the statistics of existing jackpot winners? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:09 am:  
By Lynne (Lynne) on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:03 am: Does gender, yes occupation, yes place of residence yes affect the number? Is this based on the statistics of existing jackpot winners? no, but... 
Lynne (Lynne)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:21 am:  
Do you have a table of numbers for all variables? Are there more variables to be found? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:23 am:  
By Lynne (Lynne) on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:21 am: Do you have a table of numbers for all variables? no, but certainly a table of some kind is involved... Are there more variables to be found? a few, but it's not important exactly what they are 
Lynne (Lynne)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:24 am:  
Is this in the realms of science or Mystic Meg type prediction? 
Lynne (Lynne)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:25 am:  
Is the table that is involved a Ouija table? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:28 am:  
By Lynne (Lynne) on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:24 am: Is this in the realms of science yes or Mystic Meg type prediction? prediction is certainly involved, but the paramormal is not By Lynne (Lynne) on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:25 am: Is the table that is involved a Ouija table? no  just a statistical table 
Lynne (Lynne)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:32 am:  
Do we have to work out how many tickets a Sheffield Wednesday supporting steelworker needs to buy when she does her weekly shopping? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:34 am:  
By Lynne (Lynne) on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:32 am: Do we have to work out how many tickets a Sheffield Wednesday supporting steelworker needs to buy when she does her weekly shopping? well, depending on the age of the Sheffied Wednesday supporting steelworker, I guess the number would be in the lower twenties 
Lynne (Lynne)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:36 am:  
OK  an 82 year old female wrestler who supports Leyton Orient? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:38 am:  
By Lynne (Lynne) on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:36 am: OK  an 82 year old female wrestler who supports Leyton Orient? I'd guess somewhere in the lower fifties, but it's difficult to say for certain because no one supports Leyton Orient 
Lynne (Lynne)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:41 am:  
You try telling her that  she'll deck you (after she's cracked a few walnuts with her eyelids) 
Lynne (Lynne)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:43 am:  
Actually, I'm stuck here. Are we to find out the reasoning behind the table? Or who are the boffins who've worked it out? Or our personal calculation? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:44 am:  
By Lynne (Lynne) on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:43 am: Actually, I'm stuck here. Are we to find out the reasoning behind the table? it would help if you knew what kind of a tabel it was, yes Or who are the boffins who've worked it out? this would assist you in discovering what kind of a table it is Or our personal calculation? this would probably depress you 
Lynne (Lynne)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  12:47 am:  
I'll sleep on it 
Johanna (Buzzard)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  3:09 am:  
Is the relevant thing the expected number of years you have left to live? So if two people of different ages, genders, occupations, etc. are both expected to live for 30 more years, they would both have to buy the same number of lottery tickets? If a decision were made today by the people in charge of the English lotteries that the English lotteries would cease at the end of the year 2015, would that change the number of tickets you have to buy? Would it change the number of tickets that I would have to buy? Is it relevant whether the jackpot, should you win it, is paid as a lump sum or as an annuity? If so, which? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  3:16 am:  
By Johanna (Buzzard) on Thursday, December 22, 2005  03:09 am: Is the relevant thing the expected number of years you have left to live? no, but... So if two people of different ages, genders, occupations, etc. are both expected to live for 30 more years, they would both have to buy the same number of lottery tickets? they probably would, but the reason is not exactly the number of years they have to live... If a decision were made today by the people in charge of the English lotteries that the English lotteries would cease at the end of the year 2015, would that change the number of tickets you have to buy? no Would it change the number of tickets that I would have to buy? no Is it relevant whether the jackpot, should you win it, is paid as a lump sum or as an annuity? a little, perhaps If so, which? as a lump sum 
Johanna (Buzzard)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  4:34 am:  
Does the number of tickets you need to buy depend on your current financial situation? Does it depend on the state of your health? Does it depend on the age at which you are allowed to retire in order to receive your pension? If the cost of lottery tickets and the amount of the prizes were all divided by 100, would you still have to buy 28 tickets? or 2800? or some other number? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  4:37 am:  
By Johanna (Buzzard) on Thursday, December 22, 2005  04:34 am: Does the number of tickets you need to buy depend on your current financial situation? no Does it depend on the state of your health? yes Does it depend on the age at which you are allowed to retire in order to receive your pension? no If the cost of lottery tickets and the amount of the prizes were all divided by 100, would you still have to buy 28 tickets? this one or 2800? or some other number? 
Lynne (Lynne)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  8:14 am:  
There is a sort of lottery of postcodes as to whether people get the best health care in the NHS. Is this meant as a comparison along the lines of "You have as much chance winning the lottery with n tickets as getting the best treatment (at your age) for your condition in the area where you live"? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  9:26 am:  
By Lynne (Lynne) on Thursday, December 22, 2005  08:14 am: There is a sort of lottery of postcodes as to whether people get the best health care in the NHS. Is this meant as a comparison along the lines of "You have as much chance winning the lottery with n tickets yes as getting the best treatment (at your age) for your condition in the area where you live"? but not with this 
Alizon (Alizon)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  10:22 am:  
Would you be less depressed if the answer was 42? MOre depressed if it was, say, 15? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  1:25 pm:  
By Alizon (Alizon) on Thursday, December 22, 2005  10:22 am: Would you be less depressed if the answer was 42? no MOre depressed if it was, say, 15? no 
Mosquito (Mosquito)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  2:35 pm:  
Is it something along the lines of living long enough to collect your prize? So you need to buy 28 tickets in order that your chance of winning a jackpot not be significantly reduced by the chance that you will die before you have the opportunity to collect it? 
David Burn (Woubit)
 Posted on Thursday, December 22, 2005  4:32 pm:  
By Mosquito (Mosquito) on Thursday, December 22, 2005  02:35 pm: Is it something along the lines of living long enough to collect your prize? So you need to buy 28 tickets in order that your chance of winning a jackpot not be significantly reduced by the chance that you will die before you have the opportunity to collect it? this is easily close enough  well done ***** SPOILER ***** A friend of mine who is an actuary recently informed me that there are about a million men my age or thereabouts in England, and that two of them die every hour. This is the kind of cheerful conversation that actuaries have with their friends down the pub. A few moments' reflection indicated that my chance of dying during any given hour in the near future was approximately 500,000 to one against. The chance of winning the jackpot on the National Lottery is roughly one in 14 million with a single ticket. If you buy 28 tickets (with different numbers on all of them, bien entendu) the chance of winning the jackpot reduces to roughly one in 500,000. If I were to buy lottery tickets and settle down to watch the draw live on television, I would need 28 of them in order that the chance of my winning the jackpot equalled the chance of my dying while watching the programme. This depressed me somewhat. More cheerful puzzles on the way. Thanks to all who took part in this one 
Simon Downham (Beroean)
 Posted on Friday, December 23, 2005  7:05 pm:  
Although I am no mathematician I must admit that this mode of thinking is very much on my wave length  I like it! 
Tommy Petersson (Tommyp)
 Posted on Saturday, December 24, 2005  2:27 pm:  
Well, what "may" look nonmathematical is that the chance should be reduced from 1:14000000 to 1:500000... 
