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Balin (Balin)
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Post Number: 421
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Posted on Wednesday, January 29, 2014 - 9:18 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

At a sports bar somewhere in the US, a man makes a bet with a patron. The man picks either odd or even, and the patron takes the other. He goes on to another person and makes the same bet, and repeats with a few other patrons. He wins more often than he loses.

A few hours later, he does this again, and again he wins more than he loses.

What is the bet and why does he win so much?
Wizardofnz (Wizardofnz)
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Posted on Wednesday, January 29, 2014 - 9:38 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

I assume the chances of odd or even are different to 1:1 in most cases.

Does he always pick odd or even? Does he choose either odd or even based on which he thinks will be more likely? Does he choose it based on some aspect of the person he's betting with?

Is he betting on something sports-related? The scores? The players' numbers? The length of time elapsed before/between scoring?

Would someone with a basic knowledge of probability refuse, or at least be more wary, of taking this guy up on his bets?
Gregoryuconn (Gregoryuconn)
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Posted on Thursday, January 30, 2014 - 1:42 am:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Super Bowl relevant? Benford's Law at all relevant?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Thursday, January 30, 2014 - 5:03 am:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

I assume the chances of odd or even are different to 1:1 in most cases. Explore further.

Does he always pick odd or even? He doesn't always pick the same one Does he choose either odd or even based on which he thinks will be more likely? This Does he choose it based on some aspect of the person he's betting with? Yes

Is he betting on something sports-related? Yes The scores? The players' numbers? Yope. No to rest The length of time elapsed before/between scoring?

Would someone with a basic knowledge of probability refuse, or at least be more wary, of taking this guy up on his bets? Knowledge of probability? Probably not.

Super Bowl relevant? No, though this could happen for the Super Bowl Benford's Law at all relevant? No
Sundowner (Sundowner)
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Posted on Friday, January 31, 2014 - 8:57 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

When he repeats this a few hours later, is he betting with exactly the same people? if so: does he in each case pick the same as he did the first time? or always the opposite?
Does odd or even refer to numbers? to a sum of numbers? to a score? a quantity? a number how often something will happen or occur?
Might there be situations where the outcome is neither odd nor even?
Emeraldink (Emeraldink)
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Posted on Saturday, February 01, 2014 - 8:31 am:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Does the bet with the second person depend in any way of the outcome of the first bet, as in "if I win the previous bet, our agreement stays, if I loose -- it reverses"?

Is sport relevant? Will it work for synchronized swimming, for example? :-)

Is the bet about the sport in general? current game or competition? or what is happening in the bar?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Saturday, February 01, 2014 - 11:11 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

When he repeats this a few hours later, is he betting with exactly the same people? Probably not - there could be some repeats - but irrelevant if so: does he in each case pick the same as he did the first time? or always the opposite? Neither
Does odd or even refer to numbers? This to a sum of numbers? to a score? a quantity? a number how often something will happen or occur?
Might there be situations where the outcome is neither odd nor even? Yes

Does the bet with the second person depend in any way of the outcome of the first bet, as in "if I win the previous bet, our agreement stays, if I loose -- it reverses"? No

Is sport relevant? Yes, and to spare the LTPF list, it's American football. And yes, Google/Wiki/whatever is allowed. Will it work for synchronized swimming, for example? :-) No

Is the bet about the sport in general? current game or competition? Has to do with this or what is happening in the bar?
Gregoryuconn (Gregoryuconn)
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Posted on Sunday, February 02, 2014 - 1:52 am:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Can we call the man Peyton in honor of the quarterback who is going to lose tomorrow by a score of 23-17? Heh heh, heh. I threw in a prediction. We shall see what happens.

Relevant that football has specific rules regarding which positions can wear what numbers? Relevant that eligible receivers cannot wear numbers 50-79 unless they check in with the referee before the play? College football has the latter rule, but other than that, there are no restrictions on uniform numbers. Given that, could Peyton do this with college football? Or only the NFL?

Penalties at all relevant? Relevant that they say the number of the player, but not the player's name? (i.e. "False start, number 60, offense.")
Balin (Balin)
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Post Number: 432
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Posted on Sunday, February 02, 2014 - 8:42 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Can we call the man Peyton If you wish in honor of the quarterback who is going to lose tomorrow by a score of 23-17? Heh heh, heh. I threw in a prediction. We shall see what happens. I went with 27-16 Seattle

Relevant that football has specific rules regarding which positions can wear what numbers? Relevant that eligible receivers cannot wear numbers 50-79 unless they check in with the referee before the play? College football has the latter rule, but other than that, there are no restrictions on uniform numbers. While uniform numbers are indeed relevant... no to all

Given that, could Peyton do this with college football? Or only the NFL? Only the NFL

Penalties at all relevant? ...Yes Relevant that they say the number of the player, but not the player's name? (i.e. "False start, number 60, offense.") No
Paul1440 (Paul1440)
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Posted on Sunday, February 02, 2014 - 8:56 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

We've already established that Peyton wins the bet more often than he loses. I'm wondering how much more often...

So does he win over 60% of the time? Over 70%? Over 80%? Over 90%?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Monday, February 03, 2014 - 4:58 am:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

We've already established that Peyton wins the bet more often than he loses. I'm wondering how much more often...

So does he win over 60% of the time? Over 70%? Over 80%? Over 90%? I don't know the exact percentage, but I'd say it's almost all the time.
Peter365 (Peter365)
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Posted on Monday, February 03, 2014 - 3:17 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Is the yardage loss imposed as a result of the penalty relevant? the loss of down? Does he add the jersey numbers of players who are penalised? Are only specific penalties relevant? Does it matter if it's conceded by the Offence or Defence?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Monday, February 03, 2014 - 3:21 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Is the yardage loss imposed as a result of the penalty relevant? the loss of down? Does he add the jersey numbers of players who are penalised? Are only specific penalties relevant? Does it matter if it's conceded by the Offence or Defence? No to all
Gregoryuconn (Gregoryuconn)
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Posted on Monday, February 03, 2014 - 7:53 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Is anything about the referee calling the penalty relevant? Is the jersey number of the player who committed the penalty relevant? Is there some relevant aspect of penalties in general that is true in the NFL but not in college? In college, but not in the NFL? Same questions for a specific penalty?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Tuesday, February 04, 2014 - 12:54 am:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Is anything about the referee calling the penalty relevant? Yes Is the jersey number of the player who committed the penalty relevant? No Is there some relevant aspect of penalties in general that is true in the NFL but not in college? ...No In college, but not in the NFL? No Same questions for a specific penalty? No
Peter365 (Peter365)
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Posted on Tuesday, February 04, 2014 - 10:08 am:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

I'm not sure if this is still the case but didn't the referees in the NFL used to make the hand signal and point to the offending team and then seconds later would announce it verbally with the hand gesture as well. Is that relevant?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Tuesday, February 04, 2014 - 1:07 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

I'm not sure if this is still the case This is sometimes the case, but less often but didn't the referees in the NFL used to make the hand signal and point to the offending team and then seconds later would announce it verbally with the hand gesture as well. Is that relevant? No
Gregoryuconn (Gregoryuconn)
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Posted on Wednesday, February 05, 2014 - 6:05 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Something about the officials' uniforms relevant? Relevant that NFL official uniforms have a small American flag and college ones don't? I know for a few years, the NFL refs had thicker stripes than college, but now that's not the case anymore since college got those uniforms too. Is this at all relevant? Relevant which specific official throws the flag? Referee? Umpire? Head linesman? Line judge? Field judge? Side judge? Back judge?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Wednesday, February 05, 2014 - 10:01 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Something about the officials' uniforms relevant? Yes
Relevant that NFL official uniforms have a small American flag and college ones don't? No I know for a few years, the NFL refs had thicker stripes than college, but now that's not the case anymore since college got those uniforms too. Is this at all relevant? No
Relevant which specific official throws the flag? No Referee? Umpire? Head linesman? Line judge? Field judge? Side judge? Back judge?
Gregoryuconn (Gregoryuconn)
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Posted on Wednesday, February 05, 2014 - 10:42 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Number of stripes on the uniform? Official's assigned uniform number? Relevant that one official has a different colored hat than the rest?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Wednesday, February 05, 2014 - 10:54 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Number of stripes on the uniform? Official's assigned uniform number? This only Relevant that one official has a different colored hat than the rest?
Gregoryuconn (Gregoryuconn)
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Posted on Thursday, February 06, 2014 - 1:56 am:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Is he betting on whether the official's assigned uniforn number will be odd or even? Does he know the officials assigned to the game in advance? So he knows if, for instance, three of the five have an odd uniform number and two have an even number?

Can he do this throughout the game? Before the game (like during the coin toss)? If the coin toss is relevant, could he have done it during a game when someone besides the official tossed the coin (like the Super Bowl)? If the ref accidentally tossed the coin before it was called (as Joe Namath did this Super Bowl) could Peyton still make this bet? Could he make it twice?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Thursday, February 06, 2014 - 2:58 am:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Is he betting on whether the official's assigned uniforn number will be odd or even? No but which it is is very relevant Does he know the officials assigned to the game in advance? YES So he knows if, for instance, three of the five have an odd uniform number and two have an even number?

Can he do this throughout the game? Before the game He has to make the bet before the game (like during the coin toss)?
If the coin toss is relevant, It isn't could he have done it during a game when someone besides the official tossed the coin (like the Super Bowl)? If the ref accidentally tossed the coin before it was called (as Joe Namath did this Super Bowl) could Peyton still make this bet? Could he make it twice?

Something I realized - he doesn't make the bet with the same person twice.
Sundowner (Sundowner)
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Posted on Friday, February 07, 2014 - 9:41 am:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Does he bet on the uniform number of the umpire who will call the next penalty? whether it will be odd or even?
Does he know the uniform numbers of all the officials in the match?
Are they watching the match in the pub?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Friday, February 07, 2014 - 1:32 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Does he bet on the uniform number of the umpire who will call the next penalty? No, but he does bet on a uniform number whether it will be odd or even? Yes
Does he know the uniform numbers of all the officials in the match? Assume Yes
Are they watching the match in the pub? Yes
Gregoryuconn (Gregoryuconn)
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Posted on Friday, February 07, 2014 - 8:49 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Is he netting on the uniform number of some official? Or is it a player's uniform number? Is it the uniform number of the official who threw the flag? Who will throw the first flag? Who will throw some flag at some point?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Saturday, February 08, 2014 - 9:11 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Is he netting on the uniform number of some official? Or is it a player's uniform number? YOPE to both!
Is it the uniform number of the official who threw the flag? Who will throw the first flag? Who will throw some flag at some point? No to these
Gregoryuconn (Gregoryuconn)
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Posted on Saturday, February 08, 2014 - 10:56 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Is he doing some mathematical operation with the uniform number of the official and the uniform number of some player? Adding them? Subtracting them?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Sunday, February 09, 2014 - 4:19 am:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Is he doing some mathematical operation with the uniform number of the official and the uniform number of some player? Adding them? Subtracting them? No to these
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Tuesday, February 11, 2014 - 6:54 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

HINT: The patrons do not take officials' uniform numbers into account.
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Saturday, February 22, 2014 - 1:46 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

One more HINT: His bet revolves around a uniform number, and he specifically says "uniform number".
Gregoryuconn (Gregoryuconn)
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Posted on Saturday, February 22, 2014 - 10:40 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Does his bet revolve around the ref's uniform number? A player's? Relevant which team?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Sunday, February 23, 2014 - 9:56 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Does his bet revolve around the ref's uniform number? A player's? It could be either! Relevant which team? No
Gregoryuconn (Gregoryuconn)
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Posted on Monday, February 24, 2014 - 8:54 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

I believe some officials have triple-digit numbers but no players do. Is this relevant? Is the bet on how many digits the highest uniform number on the field will have? And he knows the officials' uniform numbers, so when he bets odd when a ref has a three digit number, he wins?
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Monday, February 24, 2014 - 9:50 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

I believe some officials have triple-digit numbers but no players do. Is this relevant? Is the bet on how many digits the highest uniform number on the field will have? And he knows the officials' uniform numbers, so when he bets odd when a ref has a three digit number, he wins? No to all of this
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Wednesday, February 26, 2014 - 7:49 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

If there are no questions, I'm $poyling this by the end of the month. However, there are no more HINTS I can give that wouldn't basically reveal the answer.
Balin (Balin)
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Posted on Friday, February 28, 2014 - 3:40 pm:   Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

****SPOILER****

The men bets on the uniform number of the first person to speak on camera. (Some networks mic up players and play clips of their audio during breaks.) He memorizes the referees for the games and makes his bets on whether their numbers are odd or even, figuring most patrons won't take that into account.

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