[Hobbsicle] April Showers, May Flowers

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[Hobbsicle] April Showers, May Flowers

Postby Hobbsicle » Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:13 am

Emily tells her friends about the simple survey she is going to conduct over the course of a few evenings for a class project. She wants to find out the most common birthday month.

“I have a feeling it’ll be pretty even,” she says. “Maybe one of the months with 31 days, since there are more chances.”

“I’ve heard somewhere that September might have a slight edge,” says Sylvia. “Nine months earlier is cold weather, Christmas vacation, warm fires...” She giggles to herself.

Laura considers for a moment. “Assuming you get a good amount of data, I’ll bet you ten bucks more people will say their birthday is in February than anything else.”

“February? The shortest month?” Emily scoffs. “Ok, I’ll take that bet.”

When she completes the survey, sure enough, it’s February for the win. Why?
Last edited by Hobbsicle on Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: [Hobbsicle] April Showers, May Flowers

Postby WiZ » Fri Jul 26, 2019 3:33 am

Is there some sort of sampling bias at play here?

Is she measuring what people's birthdays actually are, or what people will say their birthday month is? If the latter, is there some incentive for them to answer February? Does the survey mislead or incentivise them to put February, even if that was not the truth? Does Emily herself play a role in influencing their responses?

Is she looking for the most common birthday month for people, and interviewing people about their own month of birth?

Is her age, or the subject matter of the class relevant?
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Re: [Hobbsicle] April Showers, May Flowers

Postby Earnest » Fri Jul 26, 2019 10:15 am

Relevant her sample? (I mean who was part of her sample) did she know all the surveyed people? Relevant?
Does she simply ask to people "When is your birthday?" "In which month are you born"? "Which is according to you the most common birthday month"? Others?
Is Laura relevantly part of the survey? Does she just bet and had nothing else to do with the survey?

more people will say their birthday is in February than anything else --> does it mean that more people is born in February?
It's February for the win means that more people has actually born in February? That most people replied to be born in February? Was it actually the true date of birth for anyone? Relevant how long did it take for her to make the survey? In which month she made it?

Valentine's day relevant?
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Re: [Hobbsicle] April Showers, May Flowers

Postby Hobbsicle » Fri Jul 26, 2019 2:35 pm

WiZ

Is there some sort of sampling bias at play here? Yes

Is she measuring what people's birthdays actually are, or what people will say their birthday month is? Ultimately, both, but her intention is to get accurate information If the latter, is there some incentive for them to answer February? No Does the survey mislead or incentivise them to put February, even if that was not the truth? No Does Emily herself play a role in influencing their responses? No

Is she looking for the most common birthday month for people, and interviewing people about their own month of birth? Yes, if I understand you correctly

Is her age, or the subject matter of the class relevant? No

Earnest

Relevant her sample? (I mean who was part of her sample) Yes-ish did she know all the surveyed people? No Relevant? Sort of
Does she simply ask to people "When is your birthday?" "In which month are you born"? Could be either of those "Which is according to you the most common birthday month"? Not this Others?
Is Laura relevantly part of the survey? No Does she just bet and had nothing else to do with the survey? Yes

more people will say their birthday is in February than anything else --> does it mean that more people is born in February? Yes
It's February for the win means that more people has actually born in February? Yes That most people replied to be born in February? Also this Was it actually the true date of birth for anyone? Yes Relevant how long did it take for her to make the survey? In a sense, yes In which month she made it? YES

Valentine's day relevant? No
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Re: [Hobbsicle] April Showers, May Flowers

Postby Earnest » Fri Jul 26, 2019 4:41 pm

To be sure: both emily and the interviwed mean birthday = day of physical birth, when the interviwed is born...being alive for the first time? Is religion relevant? Changed date of birth? Something similar? Were people born in February gathered together? Relevant?

Did she make the survey in February? Another month (please, I invoke the list of months)?

Were the surveyed born in a particular day of February? All the same day? In different days? Relevant where she conduct the survey? She surveyed people of different ages? In different places? In her school?

Special occasions relevant? Recurrences? Discounts for people born in February? Special offers for people born in February in the shop where she made the survey?
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Re: [Hobbsicle] April Showers, May Flowers

Postby irishelk » Sat Jul 27, 2019 12:44 pm

WAG: Is she interviewing people in February, at a place people often go for their birthday celebrations?
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Re: [Hobbsicle] April Showers, May Flowers

Postby trebor » Sun Jul 28, 2019 6:26 pm

Are school admission cut-off dates relevant? Does it matter how she asks the question? (In person, online, via letter, etc.?)
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Re: [Hobbsicle] April Showers, May Flowers

Postby Hobbsicle » Tue Jul 30, 2019 7:23 pm

Good questions asked by all, but I’ll cut to the chase.

irishelk


WAG: Is she interviewing people in February, at a place people often go for their birthday celebrations? YES

*************SPOILER**************

It was currently February, and Emily was going to collect answers from pedestrians at a popular restaurant/shopping area over the course of a few weeknights. Laura correctly guessed that there would be a significant enough subset of people celebrating on or around their birthday, especially on weeknights, to skew the results towards February.


Good solve, irishelk! This puzzle brought to you by Hobbsicle, your number-one source for the fastest-solved puzzles on the web.
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Re: [Hobbsicle] April Showers, May Flowers (CANDLES BLOWN)

Postby irishelk » Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:26 am

Shoot, I didn't think that was really it! :D Good one, anyway.
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Re: [Hobbsicle] April Showers, May Flowers (CANDLES BLOWN)

Postby Earnest » Wed Jul 31, 2019 6:49 am

Ahhahahahha not true Hobbsicle. Your puzzles are very well formulated. They are cool!
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